Steve September 15, 2020
tesla-(tsla)-rises-on-app-downloads-pointing-to-delivery-beat,-analyst-says

Tesla’s stock (TSLA) is rising again today as Goldman Sachs reports that Tesla’s mobile app downloads point to a possible delivery beat in Q3.

The end of the quarter is coming and the market is trying to gauge how Tesla’s deliveries are tracking for its goal to deliver 500,000 cars in 2020.

Tesla’s stock was up by as much as 4% this morning after erasing last week’s losses yesterday.

One of the reasons why the stock is rising today is Goldman Sachs coming out with a new optimistic note about Tesla’s deliveries at the end of the quarter.

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney reports that Tesla mobile app downloads are way up compared to last year:

“Tesla global weekly app downloads have recently been tracking up on a [year over year] basis, with the most recent full week of global data at up about 20%. Tesla app downloads are primarily concentrated in the United States and China, with the [year-over-year] growth being driven by China.”

Delaney suggests that the data could point to Tesla beating the third-quarter delivery estimates of 145,000 vehicles.

In Q3 2019, Tesla delivered 97,000 cars.

Therefore, a 20% increase wouldn’t necessarily mean over 145,000 deliveries, but Tesla’s deliveries are disproportionately high at the end of the quarter and a 20% increase could make a big difference.

The rest of the market is also not as optimistic with estimates averaging 121,000 vehicles on Wall Street.

Despite their higher delivery estimate, Goldman Sachs maintains a hold rating on Tesla’s stock (TSLA) with a price target of $295 per share.

At the time of writing, Tesla’s stock was trading at $437 per share.

Electrek’s Take

I don’t how much weight I’d put on Tesla app downloads, probbaly not much, but I do agree that Tesla should easily beat 121,000 deliveries.

145,000 vehicles is also achievable in my opinion.

From what I’m hearing from Tesla’s sales channel in North America, the market is still strong and Tesla has also seriously addressed its logistic issues.

China has been looking strong through the first two months of the quarter though Tesla will need a boost in delivery in September.

Europe should be way higher this quarter versus the last, but we won’t know for sure until next month as many shipments arrived more recently and therefore, the volume is expected to have happened this month.

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