What Are the Chances: The Unlikely Mainstreaming of Prediction Markets
The prediction markets were nearly certain: Francesca Hong would win Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governor on Aug. 11. Polymarket put the upstart’s chances at 96%; Kalshi was only slightly less sure at 95.5%. Then the votes came in. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated Hong by nearly 4,000 votes. AnContinue Reading












