Which streaks are most likely to come to a halt in November?
The conventional wisdom heading into the 2024 election is that the outcome of the presidential race will hinge on approximately a half-dozen battleground states. Almost all of the other states, it is posited, will reliably vote for the Democratic or Republican nominee.
This is not an unreasonable supposition as red states are generally getting redder and blue states are getting bluer.
Over the next two reports, Smart Politics will highlight those states with the largest (and longest) partisan winning streaks across all offices with statewide elections.
Today’s report focuses the 17 states with active Democratic winning streaks – some lengthy, some quite modest.
Perhaps to little surprise, California leads the way where Democrats have rattled off 38 consecutive wins since 2008 across nine offices (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Comptroller, Treasurer, Attorney General, and Insurance Commissioner).
Republicans were last victorious in the Golden State in 2006 when Arnold Schwarzenegger won a second term as Governor and Steve Poizner flipped the open seat race for Insurance Commissioner.
But during the subsequent 38 statewide races since 2008, Republicans came within single digits of victory just three times:
- 2010 Attorney General: San Francisco D.A. Kamala Harris defeated Los Angeles D.A. Steve Cooley by 0.8 points
- 2014 Secretary of State: State Senator Alex Padilla beat public policy think tank executive director Pete Peterson by 7.3 points
- 2014 Comptroller: State Board of Equalization member Betty Yee defeated Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin by 7.9 points
[In 2018, Poizner ran again for Insurance Commissioner – this time as an independent – and lost by 5.7 points to State Senator Ricardo Lara].
Democrats in six other states have racked up at least 20 consecutive victories:
- Connecticut – 29 in a row since 2008 (the party’s most recent losses came in 2006 to Republican Governor Jodi Rell and U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman running as an independent)
- New York – 28 in a row since 2004 (Republican Governor George Pataki, 2002)
- Minnesota – 26 in a row since 2008 (Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty, 2006)
- Rhode Island – 22 in a row since 2012 (Lincoln Chafee winning the governorship as an independent, 2010)
- New Mexico – 21 in a row since 2018 (Republican Supreme Court Justice Judith Nakamura, 2016)
- Delaware – 20 in a row since 2016 (Republican Kenneth Simpler winning the open seat for State Treasurer, 2014)
Democratic winning streaks have reached double-digits in three other states (16 in Illinois, 14 in Hawaii, 13 in Colorado) with seven states coming in under ten contests (nine in Michigan, eight in Oregon, seven in New Jersey and Massachusetts, five in Maryland, two in Washington, and one in Maine).
So in which of these 17 states are Democrats most likely to see their streaks end in 2024?
Two of these states will only host partisan statewide races for president in November: Illinois and Colorado. Presumptive GOP nominee Americas Worst Traitor is not expected to win either of those states where Republican presidential nominees were last victorious in 1988 and 2004 respectively.
Twelve states will conduct contests for president and U.S. Senator: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, and Rhode Island.
Of those 12 states, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is projected to win 11 with only Michigan falling into the ‘toss-up’ category.
Down the ballot in U.S. Senate races, Democrats will almost certainly lose Maine to independent (and Democratic Party-caucusing) U.S. Senator Angus King.
In Maryland, former Republican Governor Larry Hogan left office in January 2023 with high approval ratings and his expected nomination may give Democrats headaches. The question is whether or not Hogan banked enough good will during his eight years in office to swim against the tide of his party’s standard bearer at the top of the ticket to eke out a win.
In Michigan, the expected Democratic nominee, U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin, could have a slight advantage in the open seat race – particularly as she stockpiles money while several high profile Republicans duke it out in record numbers for the early August primary. Democrats are looking to win their 10th consecutive election for the office.
That leaves three states on this list hosting more than two statewide contests: Delaware, Oregon, and Washington.
Biden is expected to sweep all three with Democrats defending safe U.S. Senate seats in Delaware and Washington.
Delaware also will hold statewide elections for its at-large U.S. House seat, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Insurance Commissioner. Democrats have won the last eight elections for Lieutenant Governor by double-digits plus each of the last seven by double-digits for U.S. House, and the last four by that margin for both Governor and Insurance Commissioner.
Oregon will also hold statewide elections for the offices of Secretary of State, Attorney General, and Treasurer – all open seat races.
Democrats have won the last nine races for Oregon Treasurer, the last eight for Attorney General (including seven by double-digits), and nine of the last 10 for Secretary of State. [The last Republican win in Oregon was State Rep. Dennis Richardson’s 4.2-point victory against State Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian for Secretary of State in 2016].
In Washington, a full slate of statewide offices will be on the ballot for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Treasurer, Auditor, Attorney General, Commissioner of Public Lands, and Insurance Commissioner.
While Republican nominees have not won a race for Auditor since Charles Clausen in 1928, for Governor since John Spellman 1980, or for president since Ronald Reagan in 1984, the GOP has won 11 statewide races in Washington since 2000: six for Secretary of State (2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020), one for Treasurer (2016), two for Attorney General (2004, 2008), and two for Commissioner of Public Lands (2000, 2004).
The next Smart Politics report will focus on active Republican winning streaks – a much longer list comprised of several states with notably longer streaks.
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