the-houthis-took-the-red-sea-coast.-how-did-washington-miss-it?

The recent military moves taken by Yemens Houthis resulted in stunning victories and significant strategic gains, virtually unopposed. By taking the Red Sea port of Mocha (Al-Makha), occupying Perim Island in the middle of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and seizing portions of the Red Sea coast, the Iranian proxy groupContinue Reading

ai-is-coming-to-the-counter-drone-fight

“Twenty years ago, the state of North Dakota poured in multiple millions of dollars to figure out what it looks like to do beyond visual line-of-sight operations for Class One, Two, and Three Drones. That was just the very nascent stage. Just a decade ago, ten years ago, they figuredContinue Reading

iran’s-regime-is-weaker-than-it-looks

For five and a half years, I was a hostage of the Islamic Republic of Iran. During that time, I came to believe something about the regime that may seem improbable from the outside: It is far weaker than it looks. Today, I believe we are closer to its endContinue Reading

a-warning-about-‘model-welfare’

Download a highlighted marked-up version of the Claude ConstitutionDownload the taxonomy as a PDF This essay was originally published here and is republished with permission from the author. Introduction AIs are not conscious. They do not feel, experience, or suffer. They do not have innate preferences or underlying motivations. TheyContinue Reading

navigating-a-more-uncertain-world:-lessons-from-cia’s-red-cell

Twenty-five years after 9/11, the United States is confronting yet another era of profound uncertainty and potential dangers. The pace and scale of change are creating unforeseen disruptions that impact our security, stability, and prosperity. Advancing technologies are being adopted and applied in unexpected ways, sparking debates about the unintendedContinue Reading

when-threats-move-faster-than-institutions

A major aspect of the national security story of the past year comes down to one gap. Our adversaries, and increasingly the machines they use, now operate at machine speed. The institutions we count on for defense, oversight, and trust still operate at human speed, and several are being reorganizedContinue Reading

ai-is-coming-for-the-chain-of-command

The voice belonged to Gen. Tareq Saleh. It was telling his men to fall back. Or so it seemed. “Advances and retreats are a normal part of war,” the recording reasoned. “Pull back toward Mocha.” It was mid-September. Houthi fighters were pressing Yemen’s Red Sea coast from three directions. TheContinue Reading

putin-is-testing-the-west’s-resolve

In the preface to volume one, “The Gathering Storm,” of his six-volume memoir of World War II, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill recalls a conversation with U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt, in which Roosevelt asked what the war should be called. Churchill responded instantly, “the unnecessary war,” noting that it wasContinue Reading

the-nations-that-don’t-appear-on-the-map

The most influential media network operating inside a dozen allied countries today has no masthead, no headquarters and no country of incorporation. It has roughly 50 million members across more than 150 countries. It is the Chinese diaspora — and it is only one of several. Since the Montevideo ConventionContinue Reading

the-military’s-race-to-operationalize-ai

“I feel as though I was catapulted into a dystopian future in which the battlefield (or ‘kill zone’ as Ukrainians call it) is dominated by drones and sensors, and will increasingly be shaped by AI [Artificial Intelligence], too. It’s where those in command centers digest huge quantities of data toContinue Reading

the-authority-we-cannot-keep

Washington announced permanent control of Greenland on Friday. The two governments that must ratify it announced, in the same breath, that the text recognizes their sovereignty. Both cannot be the settled meaning of an agreement neither parliament has seen. The President’s post gave the United States “permanent control over security,Continue Reading

heads-they-win,-tails-they-win:-the-cmmc-trap-and-the-way-out

Here is a prediction from inside the compliance trenches: the CMMC Reform Task Force closed its sixty-day review on September 11 and is now finalizing recommendations for the Department of War’s Chief Information Officer, with a public report expected within weeks. When that report lands, read it knowing what itsContinue Reading

how-china-is-building-an-architecture-of-control-across-the-heart-of-asia

In the years following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, much of the world treated the region as strategically peripheral – unstable, exhausted, and largely disconnected from the future of global security. Policymakers assumed the consequences of state collapse and civil war would remain regionally contained. They did not. The vacuumContinue Reading