There are 65 active state-based conflicts in the world today, according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. That is not 65 separate crises. It is 65 living laboratories. The contest that matters is not understanding any one of them. It is recognizing the 66th — the next emerging theater —Continue Reading
“I’m deeply concerned that the Presidential proposal for $350 billion mandatory funding [to be carried in a reconciliation bill and not an appropriations bill] for defense will have no Appropriations [Committee] input on the enactment. That’s not the right way to fund the Department of Defense, because it took theContinue Reading
Ideally, Iran should not be permitted to enrich uranium, even at the 3.67% low enriched uranium level, enough for nuclear reactors to generate electricity, not a nuclear explosion. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT) does not grant an unfettered right to enrich uranium, but even if itContinue Reading
When I was three years old, I fell in love with the violin thanks to an unlikely duet between Itzhak Perlman and a grumpy green Muppet. Watching Perlman’s bow dance across the strings on Sesame Street, I was transfixed. I turned to my parents and announced with all the gravityContinue Reading
The AI bubble is not a capability bubble. It is an expectation bubble. National security leaders are treating AI as a replacement for analysts, engineers, and tradecraft when it is really a volatile acceleration layer that still requires human judgment, security controls, and cost discipline. The current state of AIContinue Reading
Author’s Note In our first paper, DNI Day One: Three Strategic Decisions for National Security Evolution, we identified three challenges confronting the next Director of National Intelligence: enterprise leadership, resource alignment, and strategic competition. This paper focuses on the reforms most likely to improve the Intelligence Community’s ability to meetContinue Reading
The announcement of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran surprised many observers. The underlying conditions appeared unfavorable to an agreement—and yet a deal emerged. For months, analysts pointed to profound disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program, regional influence, sanctions, and ongoing military activity as reasons why the space forContinue Reading
BLUFF — On 18 June, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) researchers released a new study that says Cuba has completed construction of a major signals intelligence antenna array at its Bejucal facility near Havana. CSIS says that based on commercial imagery and open source information, this new constructionContinue Reading
U.S. Vice President JD Vance is touting success out of the latest round of talks in Switzerland focused on seeking a permanent end to the war in Iran. But despite his description of a “very, very good day” of negotiations on Sunday, Iran is denying that it has made anyContinue Reading
“I had to stop them [the Iranians] because if they had a nuclear weapon, they would use it. And you want to see bedlam, let them blow up a couple of cities someplace, like they would’ve blown up Israel. If it weren’t for me, Israel would not exist today, becauseContinue Reading
Artificial intelligence is moving quickly into national security work. That is not a future trend. It is already happening in analysis, collection support, cyber defense, logistics, language processing, software development, and mission planning. The real question is no longer whether AI will be used, it is. The harder question isContinue Reading
Entrepreneurs realize that speed compresses learning. They know some of their initial assumptions will be wrong or only partially right, so going fast allows them to test ideas and move from opinions to evidence to products before they run out of cash or time. A startup that spends years toContinue Reading
An impending casualty of artificial intelligence, we are told, is the human spy. The conventional wisdom is that in our AI future, there’s little need to recruit agents, plan secret rendezvous, or conduct dead drops—the old-school tradecraft of espionage. “Human spies in the field will become rare,” wrote David IgnatiusContinue Reading